A new poll released late last week now shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton deadlocked at 45% each, with 7% of voters still undecided as early voting approaches.
The poll, conducted by UMass Lowell/YouGov, found that Paxton and Talarico were tied at 45%, with 7% of respondents undecided, and 1% saying they wouldn’t vote.
The latest poll comes as Talarico has led Paxton in most September and October polls, with some even showing Talarico leading by several points.
“The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn’t yet have a law degree and James Talarico wasn’t even born. With the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election,” said John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell. “Neither of the premier statewide races has a clear leader. Texas, a once-reliable rock, is starting to show some cracks.”
UMass Lowell poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters between Sept. 18-28 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
Among demographic groups, voters 65 and older were more likely to support Paxton, 58% to 38%, while Talarico led younger voters by 49% to 37%.
Hispanic and Black voters were more likely to support Talarico over Paxton. Hispanic voters favored Talarico, 48% to 42%, while Black voters favored him, 67% to 17%.
Although the poll did not measure Paxton’s favorability among voters, it did measure Talarico’s. He received a 42% favorable rating, while 41% viewed him unfavorably.
The UMass Lowell poll also surveyed likely voters in the Texas governor’s race between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would support Abbott, compared with 44% who said they would support Hinojosa. One percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon, 6% were undecided and 1% said they would not vote.
The poll also found opposition to artificial intelligence data centers being built in respondents’ communities, with 65% saying they opposed such facilities. Additionally, 56% said they would support a statewide ban on building new data centers or expanding existing ones.
